NEW: Global Impacts of the Ukraine Crisis radar available on Futures Platform

You can now find a new pre-filled radar template on Futures Platform that will help you understand the key changes, developments and trends emerging from the Ukraine Crisis.

Futures Platform's team of futurists have created a new foresight radar that examines the changes the Ukraine Crisis may bring, and presents existing trends that are either accelerated or otherwise affected by the conflict. The foresight radar has four sectors. The first presents short-term changes caused by the war. The second features longer term changes that will likely persist even after the conflict has ended. The third sector contains potential implications of the war that could come to pass aided by the war’s consequences. The fourth sector presents changes that will gain in speed first, but then slow down.

The information on the radar can used to assess how your organisation should prepare for the future shaped by the first major war in Europe for decades. The phenomena are fit for strategy stress-testing, scenario planning and workshops.

The radar and its contents are subject to updates as the situation progresses.

 

Screenshot 2022-03-11 at 11.09.43

Short-term change

Several things are likely to change at least for the duration of the conflict. As already seen, the internet plays a key role in the propaganda front of the war. Especially Ukraine has used the social media to boost morale and gather global support. Russian government has taken strong measures to limit the ways the people can get information about the war.

Economically, the war's effects are already visible. Sanctions levied on Russia have forced private enterprises to ensure that they comply. Many companies have also voluntarily halted their operations in Russia. Russian airspace has been closed for many foreign airlines, leading potentially to at least some difficulties for the passenger aviation.

Some of these changes may return to normal once the war ends. However, for example concerning the information control in Russia, the effects of the war can be permanent. Also, the damage done by the sanctions to the Russian economy may not be repaired for a long time to come.

Long-term change

Russian aggression has caused especially its European energy clients to look for other ways to meet their needs. The war may increase the prices of energy, food and raw materials. It is unclear whether these price hikes will be overcome soon. As Ukraine and Russia are major producers in agriculture, and Russia is a major producer of many raw materials and fertilizer ingredients, the effects on prices could remain at least some time after the conflict ends.

Russia’s position in energy supply chains will likely stay weakened also after the conflict ends. Europe may manage to rid itself from the Russian hydrocarbons. In the long run, Russia’s standard of living will develop quite unfavourably, probably leading to internal discontent and even instability.

Ukraine, whatever the outcome of the war, faces a lengthy period of reconstruction. It remains to be seen if the refugees are willing to return. If the children who have managed to leave the country will not return, Ukraine’s future demographic situation could be bleak.

Potential implications and escalations

The war could potentially either escalate or lead to unintended consequences. Countries supporting Ukraine could witness increase in cyberattacks that target their governmental, banking and other vital systems. Technologically the conflict could lead to a long-term ban of most dual-use items to Russia from Europe and the US. In the worst case, if the situation escalates to a NATO-Russia war, the global economy would be badly hurt.

There is a possibility that the war could lead to either a regime change in Russia or to the collapse of the state as a whole. The collapse could be triggered by a catastrophic economic downfall that would force the regions of the federation to seek economic help from the neighbouring countries, potentially leading to some border questions being actualised once more, e.g., by China.

The conflict contains several uncertainties as it is. The potential for escalation and spreading of the conflict exists. The possible flashpoints would be found along the Russian western border, in the Baltics, Poland and Finland.

Accelerates first, then slows down

The Ukrainian war has accelerated some change trajectories, which, however, will likely slow down after a while. The most significant one is the unity of Europe and NATO in the face of the conflict. However, over time, it is likely that particularly the EU will return to its old ways of national interests dominating the continent.

Economic sanctions against Russia have reached very severe proportions, and are likely to remain in place at least for the duration of the war. If Russia manages to occupy Ukraine, the sanctions could remain in place indefinitely. However, it is unclear if the sanctions will, or could, be much increased from the present level.

The refugee flows from Ukraine will continue and even grow in size, but eventually all those able and willing to leave will have left. Most of the refugees will head to Europe. The information warfare has also intensified, but will likely decrease as the conflict either ends or more effective ways to combat propaganda are introduced.

How to access the radar to gain more insights on this topic

To access the new regional radars as an editable template and start collaborating with your team, follow these steps:

  1. Click the "Create a new radar" button on the Radars page or the Groups section on the Lounge to open the radar creation wizard.
  2. In Step 1. of the wizard, select the "Pre-filled" option from the "Pre-filled content" dropdown menu.
  3. In step 2, type in "Global Impacts of the Ukraine Crisis" into the search bar and select it.
  4. Open the radar, and start customising it to your needs.

Please note that users with Coordinator and Editor-level access are able to create new radars. If you do not have capacity to open new radars within your license, you can contact your dedicated Customer Success Manager to purchase additional radars or upgrade your plan.

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