How to work with 'unknown futures' to inspire disruptive innovations

When planning for the future, many organisations rely on versions of projected futures (the expected default, “business as usual”) by reflecting on what is perceived as the most probable. In addition to probable futures (“likely to happen” based on well-known trends), some try to understand plausible futures (“could happen” based on current knowledge) and eventually possible futures (“might happen”, but we don’t have the knowledge yet). In addition, two more controversial types have been defined by futurist Joseph Voros: the preposterous futures are those that are impossible or even ridiculous, the futures that would “never happen”, and potential futures cover everything beyond today and into the future.

Living in a world where change can happen quickly and tomorrow can easily reveal itself as a complete surprise, working only with certain or highly probable changes is no longer sufficient to avoid risks. Moreover, revolutionary change is seldom possible without thinking beyond the most obvious future scenario. Therefore, we need to learn how to work with the “unknown”. We can approach the “unknown” by identifying the methods that help us concretise the preposterous and potential futures.

GO BEYOND THE ‘NORMAL’ OR ‘REALISTIC’ FUTURES

Last month, Futures Platform’s team of futurists participated in a three-day futures conference focusing on the Planetary Futures of Health and Wellbeing. The Futures Conference is an annual event where futurists and researchers from all over the world gather to explore alternative futures. The agenda was interesting, but the discussion was even more eye-opening.

We had a chance to chat with the foresight pioneer Andy Hines, and asked him how to present preposterous futures in a project with a large corporation, where the focus was limited to forecasting. His answer was simple: “You could present them the options of extreme future events, and they grab the ones they see as interesting... or they don’t”.

I would not call that a method as of yet, but in its simplicity lies a catch. Companies that realise that the operating environment is changing fast have a clear need for foresight: they are motivated to learn new tricks and are open to new methods. And those are the companies that are ready to work with the “unknown”.

To be able to understand the unknown, you need to step outside of your comfort zone and be open to things that don’t seem as “normal” or “realistic”. If future possibilities that seem unlikely or far-fetched don’t resonate with your curiosity or raise what-if questions in your mind, you might not be ready to do the exercise (yet). But if it does, you can prioritise the wild cards - low probability, high impact change possibilities – that seem to be the most interesting from your organisation’s perspective. At this stage, one might ask to define the measures for “interesting”. It can differ from person to person – usually, people working closely with strategy, innovation management, consumer trends or market forecasts have already defined what is “interesting” to them. Often, this is something that forms a vital component of the organisation’s future success and is closely related to the strategic assumptions on which the entire business existence depends.

Engaging with the unknown is essential also because our feelings include more knowledge than the data – they reveal things we feel insecure about or tend to avoid. If the change described in the wild card is evoking strong feelings, you might just be on the right track to discovering the potential of preposterous futures.

Another piece of advice we got at the conference was “Make them laugh”  by futurist Maya Van Leemput. “The more ridiculous event you can find, the better. Just make sure you land them well”, she continued. By landing, she refers to a concrete end result: For example, you can start with Jules Verne’s sci-fi story “Robur the Conqueror”, with one end result being the modern helicopter. Once you start looking for ridiculous ideas that actually landed, it is possible to make sense and engage with concepts that are difficult to grasp. By letting go of the expectation of having to be right and encouraging creativity, you’ll start seeing the ridiculous ideas as a tool or source for innovation. From the foresight perspective, the value lies in how these ideas might change the world around you.

Use wild cards for strategy analysis and stress-testing

One practical way to better understand the unfamiliar and unknown futures is to broaden your perspective with the help of wild cards. Wild cards are often characterised as sudden, rare, surprising, disruptive discontinuities and shocks that could change the course of the future. These “known unknowns” may present early information about a potential emerging risk or a game-changing opportunity.

Here are our top 3 tips based on our experience working with public and private organisations of different sizes from different industries:

1. Select the wild cards that make you laugh, or the ones that irritate you the most.

2. Picture your organisation in a world where this wild card becomes a reality:

   • Who are your main customers in this new world?

   • What are your main responsibilities?

   • Who are your competitors?

   • Which values are perceived as important in society?

3. Evaluate your strategy under each new world outlined in the previous step:

   • Is your current strategy still robust? Or is it completely redundant?

   • How would you need to reshape your strategy to remain competitive?

   • What actions could you take today to future-proof your existing strategy?

   • Are the effects of the wild card first experienced internally or externally (to the organisation)?