Te Manatū Waka Ministry of Transport uses Futures Platform to understand what the future of the transport industry may look like in the next 10 to 50 years, and to discover insights that guide policymaking, strategy and decision-making.
Building internal foresight capabilities and processes
Foresight used to be conducted on an ad hoc basis at Te Manatū Waka Ministry of Transport, but since they started using Futures Platform, the Ministry has taken a more collective approach to building its foresight capabilities and processes. Joren Kruip, Strategic Policy & Innovation Adviser at the Ministry, explains: “We wanted to build foresight capabilities across the entire organisation, so that even if the person in charge of the foresight work leaves, the knowledge would stay within the organisation.”
The Ministry primarily uses foresight in projects that require long-term strategic
thinking (e.g., strategy development, reviewing legislation) to better understand how the sector will develop and ensure that its decision-making and planning will be more future-proof. As a government body, the Ministry’s emphasis in their foresight work is on being prepared for major disruptions and changes across the world: “The main goal and the reason we started doing this work is to skill ourselves in futures thinking and improve foresight processes across the Ministry. Futures thinking or horizon scanning is one way to prepare for potential futures. However, this task is often lost in the mire of ‘business as usual’ work. Our aim has been to create a culture of preparedness, and the need for this has become especially apparent with the pandemic. A lot of people had been talking about the possibility of a pandemic, but were we actually prepared for it?”, Kruip observes.
“Futures thinking is one way to prepare for potential futures. However, this task is often lost in the mire of ‘business as usual’ work. Our aim has been to create a culture of preparedness.”
Joren Kruip, Strategic Policy & Innovation Adviser at Te Manatū Waka - Ministry of Transport
Collective trend scouting with Futures Platform
When the Ministry of Transport first set out to use Futures Platform, there was no central approach to foresight. Hence, the Strategic Policy & Innovation team decided to build this
process by developing its own methodology. To identify the trends that may impact the
future national supply chain, they initiated an internal brainstorming session to test Futures
Platform’s trend database. Afterwards, they had a few more meetings to narrow down the
extensive list of trends that had been identified in the first session: “We first created a
supply chain radar based on one of the ready-made, futurist-created radars on Futures Platform. Based on our discussions, we modified the radar and the phenomena. To test the insights available on Futures Platform, we showed our Supply Chain team the trends related to supply chains and freight. After these sessions, we thought that we could also test these
trends with a wider audience. So, we narrowed down the list of phenomena and trends on the radar, created a survey and sent that out to over 300 stakeholders in the national supply chain,” Kruip explains.
The stakeholder response rate to the survey was an astounding 45%. The respondents were working across different parts of the national supply chain (e.g., private sector, public sector, academia) and represented different levels within organisations. The inputs were later used to craft a stakeholder summary and a wider trend report. “The survey included future trends picked from Futures Platform’s database. On a scale of 1-5, we asked the participants to rank the trends in terms of certainty – whether a specific trend would occur in New Zealand, and in terms of their anticipated impact on the supply chain in the next 30 years if they would occur. And people loved the survey! This gave us a lot of new insights. For example, we observed that the insights from the government sector may sometimes differ from those of the private sector.”
Based on the data gathered from the survey, the Ministry prepared a stakeholder
summary to report back on the high-level insights to the survey participants, as well as a
trend report for the supply chain team. “The report will help inform the development of a
National Freight & Supply Chain Strategy,” Kruip adds.
The phenomena that stood out in the survey results were the ‘uberisation’ of freight
and the increasing importance of visibility and sharing data in the supply chain. “The COVID-19 pandemic showed that traceability in supply chains can fall apart when actors rely on outdated, face-to-face processes. An increase in visibility and sharing of data can allow for more flexibility and efficiency gains, for example by introducing blockchain technology for shipping or multi-modal use of real-time data. The uberisation of freight could reduce costs and boost efficiency by offering a digital alternative to freight brokerage and connecting shippers with carriers to schedule shipments at a preferred time and price. This could reduce the number of trucks driving around with partial or empty truckloads, and ultimately reshape the freight sector,” Kruip explains.
As sustainability and emissions reduction are key government priorities, transition to sustainable fuel solutions was another hot topic in this research. “According to supply chain stakeholders, it is likely that the social pressure for rapid decarbonisation is a trend that will continue to increase in New Zealand. This will likely have an indirect impact on the national supply chain, as several industries may switch to alternative fuels such as electric energy, biofuels, and hydrogen.” Kruip clarifies.
The emergence of Uber-like services and more data visibility across the freight ecosystem can make logistics more efficient and ultimately reshape the sector.
Trend reports help foresight work get a foothold
The trend report produced for the supply chain team helped increase awareness and interest in foresight work across the Ministry. After the word got out, Kruip started receiving requests from various teams who were excited to conduct similar foresight research to feed into their strategic work. For Kruip, Futures Platform has been the go-to platform for searching future phenomena and trends within a diverse range of topics and sectors.
“Being the Ministry of Transport, we generally start looking at things from a transport
sector perspective, and then we broaden our focus to look at larger, more general
megatrends – for example, ageing population or geopolitical uncertainty, since they
affect all sectors. In our trend report on the national supply chain, we also focused on
‘hot topics’ like the transition towards sustainable fuel solutions, and ‘wildcards’ – trends
that are relatively uncertain but will have a significant impact if they occur.”
The team has also undertaken a similar project for the Search & Rescue team, who were
reviewing both the recreational and environmental safety systems in New Zealand, and
were interested to learn about trends and technologies that might change how these
systems are currently operating (e.g., an increase in extreme outdoor activities). “Our
foresight project for the Aviation team is a high-level scenario report that explores what
the aviation system in New Zealand might look like in 30 to 50 years. This work is part of
their review of New Zealand’s air navigation settings, and it focuses on a wide range of
subjects, including emerging aviation technologies and future airspace use, as well as on
social trends impacting the aviation system,” adds Kruip.
“Futures Platform is a one-stop-shop that gives you an overview of what’s going on around the globe, no matter what industry you’re looking at. The way trends are presented on the platform makes it easy to share them, and I don’t have to read 60-page reports like I did in the past.”
Joren Kruip, Strategic Policy & Innovation Adviser at the Te Manatū Waka - Ministry of Transport
Both the trend and the scenario reports are initially written for internal purposes, but they can ultimately influence other large projects as Kruip explains: “In addition to trend insights, we also provide input for generational investments. For example, in the case of aviation, we must think about investments that need to be made now so that the aviation sector and airports are fit for purpose in the next 30 to 50 years.”
The Ministry also utilises the scenario narratives on Futures Platform’s trend cards to support their discussions on sustainable aviation fuels: “The scenarios are an excellent addition to Futures Platform’s trend cards. They are thought-provoking, and they give us an idea of which direction each phenomenon might take. When we talk about sustainable aviation fuels, there are many biases. Some people may think sustainable alternatives will become available in the next ten years, and others may think this is not viable in the near future. But when we discuss the scenarios, it gives us alternative futures to think about, and they enrich the conversations with different views and ideas.”
Excerpt from the Global Megatrends radar on Futures Platform. Log in to access the full radar and trend database.
Making room for futures thinking within rigid structures
Keeping up with emerging trends and doing continuous foresight can be a challenge for even the most agile companies, not to mention a whole ministry. Using Futures Platform as a starting point for global research on supply chain trends saved Te Manatū Waka Ministry of Transport time and resources. “It’s a one-stop-shop that gives you an overview of what’s going on around the globe, no matter what industry you’re looking at. The way trends are presented on the platform makes it easy to share them, and I don’t have to read 60-page reports like I did in the past. Foresight gives you an opportunity to prepare for the future and understand how your work will be affected by upcoming trends. If we understand these relationships, we’ll be better equipped to consider their potential consequences in our work,” Kruip explains.
According to Kruip, the biggest benefit of using Futures Platform has been the support the platform has provided in enhancing the organisation’s futures thinking skills and enabling fruitful brainstorming sessions.“It really helps shape your thinking process without having to scroll through many different sources. It’s thought-provoking, because you have access to so much information and so many different perspectives and futurist-created scenarios – I think that is a big win with Futures Platform.”
A crucial part of foresight work is building shared visions of potential futures and directing action towards a preferable future. By nature, this kind of work requires outside-of-the-box thinking and letting go of rigid structures. For Kruip, Wild Cards on Futures Platform have been useful tool to inspire creative futures thinking among his team: “We noticed that when we do our actual brainstorming sessions, it helps to throw in ideas that might sound crazy to many people, because they really enhance the dynamics of the conversation. Sometimes during our weekly team meetings, we throw in Wild Cards for discussion. For example, we recently discussed the Wild Card ‘The Sahara Sea’. Most people might think that this isn’t something that would happen anytime soon, but there are people committed to doing research on this topic, and it was eye-opening to read the possible impacts of the phenomenon with the team.”
“When we do our actual brainstorming sessions, it helps to throw in ideas that might sound crazy to many people, because they really enhance the dynamics of the conversation.”
Joren Kruip, Strategic Policy & Innovation Adviser at the Ministry of Transport
Looking towards and adapting to futures in organisational planning
The Ministry has a clear objective for its future foresight endeavours: “Potential
future changes need to be taken into consideration when planning projects, to
ensure that organisations like Te Manatū Waka Ministry of Transport can prepare
for and adapt to the future.”
A final piece of advice that Joren Kruip, Strategic Policy & Innovation Adviser at New
Zealand’s Ministry of Transport, has for anyone looking to develop their foresight
processes is to “try to develop an approach that both suits your organisational
goals and includes the views of stakeholders.”
“It’s a good idea to test global trends in a local context and discuss them with
your internal and external experts, because not all global trends will affect your
organisation. At the same time, there might be some domestic drivers that you don’t
find anywhere else,” Kruip concludes.
Log in to Futures Platform to check the latest trends and developments.